Predicted number of lung cancer cases in Germany among former uranium miners of the Wismut.

Between 1946-1990, the Wismut-Company in the former German Democratic Republic was the leading producer of uranium for the Soviet union. After the German reunification, a central welfare system for uranium miners of the Wismut Zentrale Betreuung Wismut (ZeBWiS) was initiated by the Hauptverband der Berufsgenossenschaften in 1992, and a data base of exposed employees was established. In spring 1993, data regarding 95,000 exposed persons were available from Saxony, but none from Thuringia. A sample of 3,654 persons was drawn. For 3,128 of them the working history at the Wismut could be reconstructed. Having established the age distribution and taking into account mortality of other causes, the expected age-specific mortality rates of lung cancer were calculated. Statistical risk models were applied. Assuming that for Saxony about 156,000 workers were exposed in underground mining and/or uranium processing, a total (past and future) of about 7,000-25,000 excess lung cancer cases are estimated to be due to exposure to radon and its progeny. From 1995 onwards about 1,300-4,800 additional cases are predicted in the population of exposed former Wismut workers in Saxony. The peak incidence was reached between 1985-1991. No prognosis for Thuringia can be given so far.