Annual incidence and fatality rates of notifiable infectious diseases in southeast China from 1950 to 2022 and relationship to socioeconomic development.

BACKGROUND

Over the past 70 years, China has advanced significantly in the prevention and treatment of infectious diseases while simultaneously undergoing a socioeconomic transformation, making it a useful source of data for analysing relationships between public health policy and the control of infectious diseases.

METHODS

We collected data on the incidence of notifiable infectious diseases and associated fatalities in Jiangsu province in southeast China from the Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Provincial Institute of Parasitic Diseases, and the Nationwide Notifiable Infectious Diseases Reporting Information System. We compared data from different historical periods using descriptive statistical methods, joinpoint regression, and correlation analysis.

RESULTS

During 1950-2022, 75 754 008 cases of 46 notifiable infectious diseases were reported in Jiangsu, with an average annual incidence was 1679.49 per 100 000 population and a fatality rate of 1.82 per 1000 persons. The incidence of classes A-B decreased (average annual percent change (AAPC) = -2.1) during the entire study period, while the incidence of class C increased (AAPC = 10.8) after 2004. The incidence of intestinal diseases (AAPC = -4.4) and vector-borne and zoonotic diseases (AAPC = -8.1) decreased rapidly, while the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases (AAPC = 1.8) increased. The number of medical and health institutions and the per capita gross domestic product correlated negatively with the annual incidence of diseases in classes A-B, but not with fatality rates.

CONCLUSIONS

Although the annual incidence of many severe infectious diseases has decreased in Jiangsu since 1950, the incidence of sexually transmitted and blood-borne diseases increased. Socioeconomic growth and sustainable investment in health systems are associated with better control of infectious diseases.