Predictive modeling and interpretative analysis of risks of instability in patients with Myasthenia Gravis requiring intensive care unit admission.

OBJECTIVE

Myasthenia gravis (MG), a low-prevalence autoimmune disorder characterized by clinical heterogeneity and unpredictable disease fluctuations, presents significant risks of acute exacerbations requiring intensive care. These crises contribute substantially to patient morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to develop and validate machine-learning models for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) admission risk among patients with MG-related disease instability.

METHODS

In this retrospective analysis of 314 MG patients hospitalized between 2015 and 2018, we implemented four machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, support vector machine, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and random forest, to predict ICU admission risk. The models incorporated fourteen clinical parameters as predictive features. The SHapley Additive exPlanations method was utilized to assess the importance of factors associated with ICU admission.

RESULTS

Through 10-fold cross-validation, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior predictive performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.8943, accuracy: 0.8603, sensitivity: 0.7222, and specificity: 0.9125). Among the analyzed features, MG severity, as classified by the Myasthenia Gravis Foundation of America clinical classification, was identified as the most significant factor influencing ICU admission. Additionally, disease duration, a key continuous variable, was inversely correlated with the risk of ICU admission.

CONCLUSION

MG severity is the primary determinant of ICU admission, with shorter disease duration increasing the risk, possibly due to greater susceptibility to exacerbations. The XGBoost model exhibited excellent performance and accuracy, effectively identifying critical clinical factors for predicting ICU admission risk in MG patients. This novel, personalized approach to risk stratification elucidates crucial risk factors and has the potential to enhance clinical decision-making, optimize resource allocation, and ultimately improve patient outcomes.