Migraine Disease Burden and Trends (1990-2021): A Multidimensional Comparative Analysis of China and Other G20 Countries.

BACKGROUND

Migraine is a prevalent neurological disorder causing significant suffering and imposing a substantial burden on healthcare systems. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021, this study comprehensively analyzes the current status, historical trends (1990-2021), and future projections of migraine burden in China and other G20 countries. The aim is to provide scientific evidence to inform evidence-based health strategies.

METHODS

We analyzed GBD 2021 data to calculate migraine incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2021. Statistical analyses characterized these metrics across age, sex, year, geographical region, and the sociodemographic index (SDI). Trends in China and other G20 countries were tracked. Future trends (2022-2050) were projected using exponential smoothing (ES) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. The Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model quantified the effects of age, period, and cohort factors on incidence, elucidating long-term burden drivers.

RESULT: Migraine burden exhibited significant age dependency, with a bimodal age pattern. A pronounced gender disparity was evident, with females bearing a consistently higher burden across all metrics (e.g., prevalence approximately twice that of males). From 1990 to 2021, the migraine burden demonstrated a dual-track trajectory: An overall increase in total burden accompanied by a widening gender gap. Predictive models project a concerning future: Without effective interventions, the migraine burden during 2030-2050 will feature further escalation of the gender imbalance. The BAPC model indicates a projected century-long intensification of the migraine burden.

CONCLUSIONS

The migraine disease burden possesses distinct age and sex dimensions, revealing significant disparities across SDI regions, countries, age groups, and genders. The escalating burden necessitates targeted interventions and public health initiatives, particularly in regions and populations disproportionately affected.