Macrophage polarization as a potential therapeutic target for atherosclerosis: a dynamic stochastic modelling study.

We proposed a dynamic stochastic mathematical model to evaluate the role of macrophage polarization in plaque development. The dynamic process of macrophages from proliferation to death was simulated under different lipid microenvironments. The probability of macrophage phenotypic switching was described using a Bernoulli distribution where the stochastic variable was determined by the local lipid level. Moreover, the interactions between macrophages and microenvironmental factors vary with macrophage phenotype. We investigated the distribution of key microenvironmental factors, the dynamics of macrophage polarization and its influence on foam cell formation. M1 macrophages were found to predominate in advanced plaque corresponding to the exacerbated inflammation observed in mice experiments. The imbalance between the deposition of oxidized low-density lipoprotein and phagocytic effects of macrophages governed the formation of foam cells. Furthermore, we simulated targeted therapies by either directly inhibiting the polarization probability to M1 macrophages or indirectly regulating macrophage polarization due to high-density lipoprotein levels. Comparison of simulation results with experimental findings in both therapies indicated that the intervention and regulation of macrophage polarization could influence plaque microenvironment and subsequently induce plaque regression, especially in the early stage. The proposed modelling system can facilitate the evaluation of novel therapies targeting macrophage polarization.