Frontiers in plant science · 2026
Water footprint and water productivity dynamics of Mediterranean rice under climate change and water regime scenarios.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Baydar Alper, Bozkurt Çolak Yeşim, Dalkılıç Burak, Çelik Yusuf
Аннотация
INTRODUCTION: Rice production is highly dependent on water availability and is increasingly exposed to climate-driven changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation patterns, and irrigation demand.
METHODS: This study evaluated future rice water footprint and water productivity responses using DSSAT-CERES-Rice outputs previously calibrated and validated for Mediterranean conditions in Türkiye. The validation-year full-irrigation reference was used to represent future irrigated conditions in the present water footprint assessment. Simulations were evaluated using three GCMs, HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR, two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and three projection periods: 2016-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098.
RESULTS: For irrigated conditions, mean green + blue water footprint was highest in 2016-2040, reaching 1250 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 4.5 and 1056 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 8.5, but remained lower in the late-future period, reaching 674 and 668 m³ t⁻¹, respectively, by 2071-2098. For rainfed conditions, mean green water footprint was considerably higher in the near-future period, reaching 6401 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 4.5 and 4610 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 8.5, mainly because limited growing-season rainfall and increased water stress reduced simulated yields under non-irrigated conditions. These values remained below the near-future levels in the late-future period, reaching 1869 and 2608 m³ t⁻¹, respectively, in 2071-2098. Irrigation water productivity ranged from 0.88 to 9.37 kg m⁻³, indicating strong sensitivity to irrigation water use and yield response, particularly in scenarios with low simulated irrigation requirements.
DISCUSSION: Overall, future rice water footprint was controlled not only by evapotranspiration, but also by yield response, irrigation regime, and GCM-specific climate responses. The study demonstrates that validated DSSAT outputs can be used not only for future yield projection, but also for water footprint assessment, providing a useful framework for future rice water management under climate change.
METHODS: This study evaluated future rice water footprint and water productivity responses using DSSAT-CERES-Rice outputs previously calibrated and validated for Mediterranean conditions in Türkiye. The validation-year full-irrigation reference was used to represent future irrigated conditions in the present water footprint assessment. Simulations were evaluated using three GCMs, HadGEM2-ES, GFDL-ESM2M, and MPI-ESM-MR, two emission scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, and three projection periods: 2016-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2098.
RESULTS: For irrigated conditions, mean green + blue water footprint was highest in 2016-2040, reaching 1250 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 4.5 and 1056 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 8.5, but remained lower in the late-future period, reaching 674 and 668 m³ t⁻¹, respectively, by 2071-2098. For rainfed conditions, mean green water footprint was considerably higher in the near-future period, reaching 6401 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 4.5 and 4610 m³ t⁻¹ for RCP 8.5, mainly because limited growing-season rainfall and increased water stress reduced simulated yields under non-irrigated conditions. These values remained below the near-future levels in the late-future period, reaching 1869 and 2608 m³ t⁻¹, respectively, in 2071-2098. Irrigation water productivity ranged from 0.88 to 9.37 kg m⁻³, indicating strong sensitivity to irrigation water use and yield response, particularly in scenarios with low simulated irrigation requirements.
DISCUSSION: Overall, future rice water footprint was controlled not only by evapotranspiration, but also by yield response, irrigation regime, and GCM-specific climate responses. The study demonstrates that validated DSSAT outputs can be used not only for future yield projection, but also for water footprint assessment, providing a useful framework for future rice water management under climate change.