A spatially dynamic agent-based model for assessing the effect of gentrification-induced migration and HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.

PURPOSE: Develop a spatially dynamic agent-based model to assess the impact of gentrification-induced migration on HIV transmission among heterosexual African American/Black women.

METHODS

We simulated a population of heterosexual African American/Black adults diagnosed with or at risk for HIV in a spatially dynamic agent-based model. We included behavioral and HIV-related probabilities based on neighborhood of residence, distance to healthcare facilities from their neighborhood, and neighborhood disadvantage status. To assess the impact of gentrification, migration was implemented in the model using probabilities that varied based on the gentrification status of their neighborhood. We then compared this scenario to a scenario where gentrification does not impact migration.

RESULTS

Among African American/Black women, we estimated their mean incidence rates for the scenarios with and without gentrification impacting out-migration to be 57.2 and 57.4 per 100,000, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Gentrification appears to have minimal impact on HIV transmission based on some metrics, possibly because of the displacement of people most affected by HIV.