Projecting the Dynamic Trends of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome: Modeling the Epidemic in Sichuan Province, China.

OBJECTIVE

Our study aimed to provide a comprehensive overview of the current status and dynamic trends of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevalence in Sichuan, the second most heavily affected province in China, and to explore future interventions.

METHODS

The epidemiological, behavioral, and population census data from multiple sources were analyzed to extract inputs for an acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic model (AEM). Baseline curves, derived from historical trends in HIV prevalence, were used, and the AEM was employed to examine future intervention scenarios.

RESULTS

In 2015, the modeled data suggested an adult HIV prevalence of 0.191% in Sichuan, with an estimated 128,766 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,983 individuals with newly diagnosed infections. Considering current high-risk behaviors, the model predicts an increase in the adult prevalence to 0.306% by 2025, projecting an estimated 212,168 people living with HIV/AIDS and 16,555 individuals with newly diagnosed infections.

CONCLUSION

Heterosexual transmission will likely emerge as the primary mode of AIDS transmission in Sichuan. Furthermore, we anticipate a stabilization in the incidence of AIDS with a concurrent increase in prevalence. Implementing comprehensive intervention measures aimed at high-risk groups could effectively alleviate the spread of AIDS in Sichuan.