Regional ecological risk assessment of selenium in Jilin province, China.

Integrating the biokinetic model of selenium with Monte Carlo analysis, this article carries out a quantitative study on ecological risk assessment in blood selenium levels of residents in Jilin province. The result shows that the established biokinetic model can be employed to predict the blood selenium levels of residents in a region. The predicted average blood selenium is 0.044 microg/ml and standard deviation is 0.013 microg/ml. Compared with the determined average blood selenium (0.043 microg/ml) and standard deviation (0.019 microg/ml), there was no obvious difference between each other (P > 0.05). The predictive risk degree (19.8%) is also similar to that of the Keshan disease occurrence (16.4%) of residents in Jilin province. The advance of the ecological risk assessment model of selenium offers a good example for the study on predictive models of other trace elements in the human body.