Visceral leishmaniasis in Piauí, Brazil, 2007-2019: an ecological time series analysis and spatial distribution of epidemiological and operational indicators.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze epidemiological and operational indicators, the temporal trend and spatial distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL), as well as VL-HIV co-infection in the state of Piauí, Brazil, from 2007 to 2019.

METHODS

This was an ecological time series study. Prais-Winsten regression was used to analyze the trend of VL incidence, case fatality ratio and operational indicators.

RESULTS

Mean VL incidence in the state was 6.03/100,000 inhabitants, with a rising trend in the 40-59 age group [annual percent change (APC) = 3.88; 95%CI 0.49;7.40] and in the regions located in the south of the state: Tabuleiros do Alto Parnaíba (APC = 14.19; 95%CI 3.91;25.50) and Chapada das Mangabeiras (APC = 12.15; 95%CI 6.69;24.96). Mean case fatality ratio was 6.02% and it remained stable. The mean rate of progression to cure was 52.58%, with a falling trend (APC = -5.67; 95%CI -8.05; -3.23).

CONCLUSION

There was rising trend in VL incidence and a falling trend in its cure rate.