Population attributable fractions of mortality in people living with HIV: roles of delayed antiretroviral therapy, hepatitis coinfections and social factors.

OBJECTIVES

Despite free access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 1996 onward, and treatment for all people living with HIV (PLWHIV) from 2013, mortality in Brazil has not homogeneously decreased. We investigated to what extent delayed ART, hepatitis coinfections and sociodemographic factors predict all-cause mortality in Brazilian PLWHIV.

DESIGN

We included PLWHIV at least 18 years, with complete CD4 cell count data, followed up between 2007 and 2015 in Brazil.

METHODS

After multiple imputation, an extended Cox model helped estimate the effects of fixed and time-varying covariates on mortality.

RESULTS

The study population (n = 411 028) were mainly male (61%), white (55%), 40 years or less (61%), heterosexually HIV infected (71%), living in the Southeast region (48%) and had basic education (79%). Hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus coinfection prevalences were 2.5 and 1.4%, respectively. During a 4-year median follow-up, 61 630 deaths occurred and the mortality rate was 3.45 (95% confidence interval: 3.42-3.47) per 100 person-years. Older age, male sex, non-white ethnicity, illiteracy/basic education and living outside the Southeast and Central-West regions were independently associated with increased mortality. The main modifiable predictors of mortality were delayed ART (i.e. CD4 cell count <200 cells/μl at ART initiation) (adjusted population attributable fraction: 14.20% [95% confidence interval: 13.81-14.59]), being ART-untreated (14.06% [13.54-14.59]) and ART-treated with unrecorded CD4 at ART initiation (5.74% [5.26-6.21]). Hepatitis C virus and hepatitis B virus coinfections accounted for 2.44 [2.26-2.62] and 0.42% [0.31-0.53] of mortality, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The current study demonstrates that besides early ART and coinfection control, actions targeting males, non-whites and illiterate people and those with basic education are important to reduce avoidable deaths among Brazilian PLWHIV.