Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2026
Analysis of suitable areas for Phlebotomus chinensis as vector of visceral leishmaniasis-China.
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Li Zhongqiu, Ma Ben, Wei Zixin, Zhou Zhengbin, Yang Limin, Chen Junhu, Zhang Yi, Li Shizhu
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: Phlebotomus chinensis (P. chinensis) serves as the primary vector of visceral leishmaniasis, a persistent public health threat, and its suitable distribution range and expansion trends remain unclear.
METHODS: This study integrated two sets of baseline data, with 24,281 specimens collected from 45 counties across six provinces through field surveys and extra records from 475 distribution sites collated via literature retrieval. Climate data with 19 bioclimatic variables and geographic data including elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation coverage were obtained from open-access online databases (data retrieval cutoff: 2023). The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to simulate habitat suitability. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate model performance, and the Jackknife test was conducted to determine the relative importance of each environmental factor.
RESULTS: The MaxEnt model produced an outstanding AUC value of 0.917 ± 0.007, demonstrating robust predictive performance. Vegetation coverage emerged as the primary environmental driver, followed by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio_9), and annual precipitation (bio_12). The contemporary suitable habitat for P. chinensis on the Chinese mainland spans 2,295,360 km², constituting 23.91% of the total land area. Core suitable habitats concentrate in central Shanxi, northern and western Henan, southern Shaanxi and Gansu, southwestern Hebei, and northern Sichuan. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the suitable distribution range will expand to 2,834,001 km² (29.52%) by 2050 and 2,934,104 km² (30.56%) by 2070. The centroid of current suitable habitats is situated in Dagui Town, Pingli County, Ankang City, Shaanxi Province (109.137665°E, 32.438831°N), with a northwestward shift of 112.37 km by 2050 and 100.15 km by 2070.
CONCLUSIONS: This study potentially delineates the suitable ecological niche of P. chinensis across the Chinese mainland, identifies key environmental drivers, and provides scientific references for regional risk assessment and targeted prevention measures.
METHODS: This study integrated two sets of baseline data, with 24,281 specimens collected from 45 counties across six provinces through field surveys and extra records from 475 distribution sites collated via literature retrieval. Climate data with 19 bioclimatic variables and geographic data including elevation, slope, aspect and vegetation coverage were obtained from open-access online databases (data retrieval cutoff: 2023). The Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was applied to simulate habitat suitability. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate model performance, and the Jackknife test was conducted to determine the relative importance of each environmental factor.
RESULTS: The MaxEnt model produced an outstanding AUC value of 0.917 ± 0.007, demonstrating robust predictive performance. Vegetation coverage emerged as the primary environmental driver, followed by the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio_6), mean temperature of the driest quarter (bio_9), and annual precipitation (bio_12). The contemporary suitable habitat for P. chinensis on the Chinese mainland spans 2,295,360 km², constituting 23.91% of the total land area. Core suitable habitats concentrate in central Shanxi, northern and western Henan, southern Shaanxi and Gansu, southwestern Hebei, and northern Sichuan. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, the suitable distribution range will expand to 2,834,001 km² (29.52%) by 2050 and 2,934,104 km² (30.56%) by 2070. The centroid of current suitable habitats is situated in Dagui Town, Pingli County, Ankang City, Shaanxi Province (109.137665°E, 32.438831°N), with a northwestward shift of 112.37 km by 2050 and 100.15 km by 2070.
CONCLUSIONS: This study potentially delineates the suitable ecological niche of P. chinensis across the Chinese mainland, identifies key environmental drivers, and provides scientific references for regional risk assessment and targeted prevention measures.