Prediction of perimenopausal fractures by bone mineral density and other risk factors.

In a prospective population-based cohort study, we assessed whether bone mineral density (BMD) measurements of perimenopausal women and other risk factors for osteoporosis are predictive of subsequent fracture. Women aged 47-51 years chosen randomly from a population register who underwent a bone density measurement 2 years previously were followed up by questionnaire to assess the 2-year incidence of any self-reported fractures. We found that 44 women, out of 1857 who completed the questionnaire, sustained at least one fracture within a 2-year follow-up period. After adjustment for covariates, the odds ratio of sustaining a fracture was 1.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.16-2.34) for every standard deviation reduction in BMD at the spine, for women with a prior history of fracture the odds ratio of a subsequent fracture was approximately 2 (95% CI 1.31-3.03), a family history of hip fracture (maternal grandmother) carried an odds ratio of 3.7 (95% CI 1.55-8.85), while being postmenopausal or having a hysterectomy resulted in an odds ratio of 1.98 (1.02-3.56). This study has shown that BMD measurements at the hip and spine and other risk factors predict any nonhip and nonspine perimenopausal fractures. Further follow-up is required to assess the predictive performance of BMD measurements and other risk factors for hip and spine fractures.