Frontiers in medicine · 2026
Association between the Fibrosis-4 index and mortality risk in acute pancreatitis.
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Wang Lijie, Wang Ruoran, Kang Yan, Ou Xiaofeng
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to evaluate the predictive value of the Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index for 28-day mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis and to develop a comprehensive prognostic model.
METHODS: This retrospective study included 467 adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Risk factors for 28-day mortality were identified through univariate and subsequent multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on the significant independent predictors, a predictive logistic regression model was formulated.
RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that age, APACHE II score, WBC, serum sodium, and the FIB-4 index were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The combined model incorporating these five factors achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.80, which was significantly higher than that of the FIB-4 index alone (AUC = 0.69, Z = 3.65, p < 0.01) and the APACHE II alone (AUC = 0.73, Z = 3.84, p < 0.01).
CONCLUSION: This study confirms the independent prognostic value of the FIB-4 index, and its integration into a multivariable model provides a practical tool to improve early mortality risk stratification in acute pancreatitis patients.
METHODS: This retrospective study included 467 adult patients admitted to the intensive care unit. Risk factors for 28-day mortality were identified through univariate and subsequent multivariate logistic regression analyses. Based on the significant independent predictors, a predictive logistic regression model was formulated.
RESULTS: Multivariate analysis revealed that age, APACHE II score, WBC, serum sodium, and the FIB-4 index were independent predictors of 28-day mortality. The combined model incorporating these five factors achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.80, which was significantly higher than that of the FIB-4 index alone (AUC = 0.69, Z = 3.65, p < 0.01) and the APACHE II alone (AUC = 0.73, Z = 3.84, p < 0.01).
CONCLUSION: This study confirms the independent prognostic value of the FIB-4 index, and its integration into a multivariable model provides a practical tool to improve early mortality risk stratification in acute pancreatitis patients.