International journal of women's health · 2026
Pancreatitis in Women of Reproductive Age: Global Burden, Rising Incidence in Youth, and Forecasts to 2050.
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Lei Yanjun, Wu Yanhong, Jiang Liangyan, Hu Juntao, Tang Zhanhong
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: Given the limited epidemiological evidence specifically focusing on women of reproductive age, this study aimed to systematically assess the global disease burden trends of pancreatitis among women aged 15-49 from 1990 to 2021 and forecasts its projected burden from 2022 to 2050.
METHODS: Using open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated temporal trends in the disease burden using the Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, and projected the disease burden of pancreatitis from 2022 to 2050 using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model (BAPC).
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate showed overall downward trends [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37 and -0.80, respectively]. Conversely, ASIR exhibited upward trends in low-middle and low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions (EAPC = 0.30 and 0.12), and notably among young women under 25 (EAPC = 0.45 for ages 15-19). Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardized DALY rate (116.37) in 2021 and was the only region with an increased burden (EAPC = 1.36). APC analysis revealed the highest local drift in ASIR for women aged 15-19 (0.31). BAPC forecasts indicate the global ASIR will continue to rise and accelerate, reaching 28.10 by 2050.
CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of acute pancreatitis declined significantly in women aged 15-49, while low and low middle SDI experienced an upward trend in ASIR, whereas younger age groups (<25) saw rising ASIR rates. Eastern Europe was the only worsening trend. APC analysis revealed 15-19 age group experienced the most localized ASIR drift. Prospective projections indicate this population will continue to accelerate by 2050.
METHODS: Using open data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database, we calculated temporal trends in the disease burden using the Joinpoint regression model and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis, and projected the disease burden of pancreatitis from 2022 to 2050 using the Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Model (BAPC).
RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, the global age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate showed overall downward trends [estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37 and -0.80, respectively]. Conversely, ASIR exhibited upward trends in low-middle and low socio-demographic index (SDI) regions (EAPC = 0.30 and 0.12), and notably among young women under 25 (EAPC = 0.45 for ages 15-19). Eastern Europe had the highest age-standardized DALY rate (116.37) in 2021 and was the only region with an increased burden (EAPC = 1.36). APC analysis revealed the highest local drift in ASIR for women aged 15-19 (0.31). BAPC forecasts indicate the global ASIR will continue to rise and accelerate, reaching 28.10 by 2050.
CONCLUSION: From 1990 to 2021, the burden of acute pancreatitis declined significantly in women aged 15-49, while low and low middle SDI experienced an upward trend in ASIR, whereas younger age groups (<25) saw rising ASIR rates. Eastern Europe was the only worsening trend. APC analysis revealed 15-19 age group experienced the most localized ASIR drift. Prospective projections indicate this population will continue to accelerate by 2050.