Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025
Modeling hepatitis B-related deaths in China to achieve the WHO's impact target.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Liu Wenjun, Liu Renjie, Li Peng, Xia Ruyi, Zou Zhuoru, Zhang Lei, Shen Mingwang, Zhuang Guihua
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) targets a 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 compared to 2015 to eliminate viral hepatitis as a major public health threat. It is unknown whether and how China can achieve this target despite significant intervention achievements. We aimed to predict the hepatitis B-related deaths in China and identify key developments needed to achieve the target.
METHODS: An age- and time-dependent dynamic hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission compartmental model was developed to predict the trend of hepatitis B-related deaths under base-case and subsequent scenarios from 2015 to 2040. In base-case scenario, we assumed the diagnosis and treatment (D&T) rate would reach 72% in 2030, as proposed by WHO. Subsequent scenarios were set based on the results of base-case and one-way sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: Compared with 2015, hepatitis B-related deaths would be reduced by 23.89% in 2030 and 51.79% in 2040, respectively, and the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction would not be achieved until 2038 at the earliest under base-case scenario. HBV clearance rate and current treatment effectiveness were the most sensitive parameters that significantly influenced the decline of hepatitis B-related deaths from 2015 to 2040. In the subsequent scenario, when D&T rate improving to 90% by 2030, with the current treatment effectiveness and HBV clearance rate being optimized from 2016, the WHO's impact target would be achieved in 2038. Increasing the clearance rate further from 2% to 2.8% during 2016-2030 linearly, the impact target would be achieved on time.
CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 even we assumed the D&T rate would reach 72% in 2030 and beyond. A comprehensive scale-up of available strategies, especially innovative drugs and technologies will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.
METHODS: An age- and time-dependent dynamic hepatitis B virus (HBV) transmission compartmental model was developed to predict the trend of hepatitis B-related deaths under base-case and subsequent scenarios from 2015 to 2040. In base-case scenario, we assumed the diagnosis and treatment (D&T) rate would reach 72% in 2030, as proposed by WHO. Subsequent scenarios were set based on the results of base-case and one-way sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: Compared with 2015, hepatitis B-related deaths would be reduced by 23.89% in 2030 and 51.79% in 2040, respectively, and the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction would not be achieved until 2038 at the earliest under base-case scenario. HBV clearance rate and current treatment effectiveness were the most sensitive parameters that significantly influenced the decline of hepatitis B-related deaths from 2015 to 2040. In the subsequent scenario, when D&T rate improving to 90% by 2030, with the current treatment effectiveness and HBV clearance rate being optimized from 2016, the WHO's impact target would be achieved in 2038. Increasing the clearance rate further from 2% to 2.8% during 2016-2030 linearly, the impact target would be achieved on time.
CONCLUSIONS: It is difficult for China to achieve the WHO's impact target of 65% reduction in hepatitis B-related deaths by 2030 even we assumed the D&T rate would reach 72% in 2030 and beyond. A comprehensive scale-up of available strategies, especially innovative drugs and technologies will ensure that China achieves the target on schedule.