[A Mathematical Approach To The Mode Of Transmission Of Clonorchiasis In The Inhabitants Of Nak-Dong And Han River Basin].

To understand the mode of transmission in clonorchiasis, a survey was made in Kim-hae Goon, South Kyong-sang Do (=Province). The mathematical analysis of the age prevalence was done on the egg positive rates. And another analysis for the comparison was also made to the cited data from two areas, North Kyong-sang Do and Ko-yang Goon, Kyong-gi Do. Some catalytic models of H. Muench (1959) were applied to the observed age prevalence. Because the both parameters, such as force of infection(a) and loss of positivity(b) were considered to be constant for a long period in the surveyed area, the two stage catalytic model by Muench was chosen to the analysis. In the surveyed area, Kim-hae Goon where the egg positive rates were 56.2% and 61.2% (by Kim, 1974), the constant values of 'a' were found to be 0.051 and 0.089 respectively. In other words, the force of infection was 51, 89 per 1,000 susceptibles. The values of 'b' were found to be 0.006 and 0.005. This means that the rates of disappearance from egg positive cases to negative were 6 and 5 per annum per l,000 positive cases in above area. Therefore, the two catalytic curves were expressed by the following equations, y = 1.133 {e(-0.006t) - e(-0.051t)} and y = 1.047 {e(-0.005t) - e(-0.089t)} respectively. In the cases of North Kyong-sang Do and Ko-yang Goon, Kyong-gi Do where the egg positive rates of clonorchis shown as 27.7% and 15.2% by Shin (1964) and Kim (l974), the curves were expressed by y = 1.769 {e(-0.010t) - e(-0.034t)} and y = 2.857 {e(-0.020t) - e(-0.027t)} respectively. From the above mathematical analyses by age prevalence in clonorchiasis, it was considered that the mode of transmission of clonorchiasis in the surveyed area, Kim-hae Goon presented more rapid pattern than those of North Kyong-sang Do and Ko-yang Goon, Kyong-gi Do.