Predictors of Concomitant Pulmonary Involvement in Hepatic Cystic Echinococcosis: A Clinical Risk Stratification Model.

PURPOSE: Hepatopulmonary hydatidosis (HPH) is a clinically relevant presentation of hepatic cystic echinococcosis (CE) in which pulmonary involvement is present at the time of diagnosis. Reliable identification of patients at risk remains challenging, and indiscriminate thoracic imaging may lead to unnecessary investigations. This study aimed to identify hepatic predictors associated with concomitant pulmonary involvement and to develop a simple risk stratification model to support selective thoracic imaging.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with confirmed hepatic CE followed at a single tertiary center. Cyst activity was classified according to the World Health Organization (WHO) staging system, and anatomical distribution was assessed using a segment-based classification. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify predictors of HPH. A point-based clinical risk score (HepatoMAP) was derived by combining cyst activity and anatomical distribution. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, bootstrap validation, and calibration plots.

RESULTS

Among 292 patients, 23 (7.8%) had hepatopulmonary hydatidosis (HPH) at initial diagnosis. Active cysts (WHO CE1-2) were strongly associated with HPH (91.3% in HPH vs. 33.2% in hepatic-only disease, p < 0.001) and remained the only independent predictor in multivariable analysis. The HepatoMAP score demonstrated good discrimination (AUC 0.83) with good calibration (bootstrap-corrected slope 0.97). No cases of HPH were observed in patients with low-risk scores (0-1 points), whereas HPH occurred predominantly in patients with scores ≥ 3.

CONCLUSION

In hepatic CE, concomitant pulmonary involvement at baseline was strongly associated with cyst activity and showed a structured but non-independent relationship with segmental topography. The HepatoMAP score showed promising rule-out characteristics in this cohort and may support more selective use of thoracic imaging. Prospective external validation is required before routine clinical implementation.