[Construction of an index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters].

OBJECTIVE: To construct an index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters such as rainstorms, floods, earthquakes, mudslides, and landslides, so as to provide insights into rapid identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk post-disasters and formulation of targeted schistosomiasis control strategies.

METHODS: An initial framework for the index system for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters was drafted through literature review, brainstorming, and focus group discussions. Two rounds of expert correspondence consultations were conducted using the Delphi method to refine and finalize the system, and the degrees of expert activeness, authority and endorse ment, and consensus were evaluated. In addition, the weights of each index were calculated using the analytic hierarchy process.

RESULTS: A total of 18 experts participated in the consultation. The expert positive coefficients were 100.00% and 94.44% for two rounds of consultations, with authority coefficients of 0.92 and 0.94, respectively. The coefficients of coordination on the index importance, rationality and operability were 0.209, 0.185, 0.222 and 0.407, 0.214, 0.257 for two rounds of consultations, respectively, and all consistency tests were statistically significant (χ2 = 246.771 to 505.278, all P values < 0.001). Following two rounds of expert consultations, an index system consisting of 6 first-level indicators, 15 second-level indicators, and 49 third-level indicators was ultimately constructed. In terms of first-level indicators, "disaster situation", "previous epidemics", "healthcare guarantee", "response capacity" and "emergency recovery" had the highest weights, each at 18.18%. Regarding second-level indicators, "Schistosoma japonicum infections in animals", "S. japonicum infections in snails" and "medical treatment" had the highest weights, each at 7.35%. In terms of third-level indicators, ten items had the highest weights, including "identification of schistosomiasis cases", "detection of S. japonicum infections in wild feces", "detection of S. japonicum infections in snails", "reserves of schistosomiasis diagnostic/testing reagents and consumables", "reserves of chemotherapy agents for human and animal schistosomiasis", "reserves of cercariacides", "periodical surveillance on schistosomiasis", "identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk and timely response", "normal provision of diagnosis and treatment services" and "post-disaster schistosomiasis surveillance", each at 2.40%.

CONCLUSIONS: A scientific, systematic, and practical index system has been constructed for assessment of schistosomiasis transmission risk following natural disasters, which may provide insights into rapid post-disaster identification of schistosomiasis transmission risk, formulation of targeted schistosomiasis control strategies and optimization of resource allocation.