A retrospective statistical analysis of the Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004-2006.

PURPOSE: A retrospective statistical analysis of the Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004-2006 was performed.

METHODS

Poisson and binomial probability distributions were performed in conjunction with statistical data reported from Singapore's Fusarium keratitis outbreak in order to identify the earliest theoretical point in time that this outbreak and its cause could have been recognized.

RESULTS

The outbreak in Singapore could, theoretically, have been recognized after only three months (three cases), P = 0.0067. The cause of the Singapore outbreak could, theoretically, have been determined after only four months (five cases), P = 0.0024.

CONCLUSIONS

The worldwide Fusarium keratitis epidemic of 2004-2006 could, theoretically, have been recognized much earlier by the application of basic statistical methods to the outbreak in Singapore. The lessons learned from this analysis may help prevent future epidemics.