Effects of Maternal Work Incentives on Teen Drug Arrests.

PURPOSE: This study exploits differences in the implementation of welfare reform across states and over time in the United States in the attempt to identify causal effects of welfare reform on youth arrests for drug-related crimes between 1990 and 2005, the period during which welfare reform unfolded.

METHODOLOGY: Using monthly arrest data from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation's Uniform Crime Reports, we estimate the effects of welfare reform implementation on drug-related arrests among 15-17 year olds in the United States between 1990 and 2005. We use a difference-in-differences (DD) approach that exploits the implementation of welfare reform across states and over time to estimate effects for teens exposed to welfare reform.

FINDINGS: The findings, based on numerous different model specifications, suggest that welfare reform had no statistically significant effect on teen drug arrests. Most estimates were positive and suggestive of a small (3%) increase in arrests.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: This study investigated the effects of a broad-based policy change that altered maternal employment, family income, and other family characteristics on youth drug arrests.