Capacity to manufacture key pharmaceuticals in New Zealand after a global catastrophe.

INTRODUCTION

Human civilisation faces global catastrophic risks such as: nuclear war, bioengineered pandemics, major solar storms and a volcanic winter. For some of these catastrophes, island nations may have relative survival potential but any collapse in international trade could also end critical imported goods such as pharmaceuticals. We aimed to explore the latter in New Zealand, a highly trade-dependent island nation.

METHODS

We identified the 10 most extensively prescribed pharmaceuticals in New Zealand that can be used for acute treatment (by annual prescription numbers). Based on modern synthesis pathways for these pharmaceuticals in the literature, we identified ingredients and then determined if these ingredients were currently produced in New Zealand.

RESULTS

The results suggest that none of these 10 pharmaceuticals could be produced in New Zealand in a trade-ending catastrophe: paracetamol, omeprazole, amoxicillin, ibuprofen, aspirin, metoprolol succinate, salbutamol, prednisone, cetirizine hydrochloride and amlodipine. This is primarily because New Zealand does not refine petrochemicals. For seven of these 10 pharmaceuticals the relevant catalysts or other specific chemical ingredients are also not mined or otherwise produced in New Zealand. There may, however, be some scope for the post-catastrophe scavenging of minerals for producing some catalysts.

CONCLUSIONS

This preliminary analysis suggests that none of the 10 most extensively prescribed pharmaceuticals that can be used for acute treatments could be manufactured in New Zealand after a trade-ending global catastrophe. To address this and other domains lacking in resiliency (e.g., liquid fuel supply), planning for building shared resiliency with other neighbouring nations (e.g., Australia) could be considered.