International journal of surgery (London, England) · 2026
Estimating the global macroeconomic impact of colorectal cancer: evidence from Global Burden of Disease 2021 and Value of a Statistical Life Year framework.
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Lv Wenwen, Wang Shihan, Duan Lei, Wu Yejun, Tian Xia, Dong Zhongxun, Xu Shuhua, Wang Bingshun
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death globally. However, its macroeconomic burden remains underexplored.
METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we quantified the economic welfare loss due to CRC across 204 countries using the Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) approach. The Valuation of a Statistical Life (VSL) was derived by adjusting the U.S. benchmark ($11.8 million) based on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and income elasticity (base case: 1.0). VSLY was calculated by dividing VSL by half the national life expectancy. Country-specific Value of Lost Welfare (VLW) was estimated and expressed as a percentage of GDP (VLW/GDP). Aggregated analyses were performed by sociodemographic index (SDI) and GBD regions. Sensitivity analyses used alternative elasticity values (0.55, 1.5) and applied a 3% discount rate.
FINDINGS: In 2021, global CRC-related VLW was estimated at $3.49 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: $3.02-$3.96 trillion), equivalent to 2.28% (95% UI: 1.97%-2.58%) of global GDP. VLW/GDP ratios were highest in high-SDI regions (2.81%) and the Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region (3.48%). At the national level, VLW ranged from <$500 million in small island states to >$0.6 trillion in China and the U.S. Discounting increased VLW estimates by 35%-67%.
CONCLUSIONS: CRC imposes a substantial and inequitable economic burden, particularly in economically developed and aging societies. Incorporating VSLY into cancer burden assessments underscores the urgency of investing in prevention, early detection, and surgical capacity strengthening, especially in middle-income and resource-limited settings.
METHODS: Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data, we quantified the economic welfare loss due to CRC across 204 countries using the Value of a Statistical Life Year (VSLY) approach. The Valuation of a Statistical Life (VSL) was derived by adjusting the U.S. benchmark ($11.8 million) based on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) and income elasticity (base case: 1.0). VSLY was calculated by dividing VSL by half the national life expectancy. Country-specific Value of Lost Welfare (VLW) was estimated and expressed as a percentage of GDP (VLW/GDP). Aggregated analyses were performed by sociodemographic index (SDI) and GBD regions. Sensitivity analyses used alternative elasticity values (0.55, 1.5) and applied a 3% discount rate.
FINDINGS: In 2021, global CRC-related VLW was estimated at $3.49 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: $3.02-$3.96 trillion), equivalent to 2.28% (95% UI: 1.97%-2.58%) of global GDP. VLW/GDP ratios were highest in high-SDI regions (2.81%) and the Central Europe, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia super-region (3.48%). At the national level, VLW ranged from <$500 million in small island states to >$0.6 trillion in China and the U.S. Discounting increased VLW estimates by 35%-67%.
CONCLUSIONS: CRC imposes a substantial and inequitable economic burden, particularly in economically developed and aging societies. Incorporating VSLY into cancer burden assessments underscores the urgency of investing in prevention, early detection, and surgical capacity strengthening, especially in middle-income and resource-limited settings.