Proactively unpacking socio-technical hazards in aviation management of change: an application of the accident scenario model for systemic risk identification.

Management of change (MoC) processes often fail to prevent incidents by overlooking emergent socio-technical hazards. Conventional assessments lack the systemic depth to proactively identify these factors. This study addresses this gap by evaluating the accident scenario model as a proactive methodology for MoC hazard identification. Employing a single-case study of an Indonesian aviation provider's MoC project, data (documents, interviews, observations) were triangulated and findings validated through focus group discussions. The methodology successfully identified 11 major socio-technical hazards including workload saturation, competency gaps and cultural reticence. Accident scenarios revealed complex failure pathways stemming from these often-latent conditions. This research offers novel empirical validation for the proactive application of the accident scenario model to MoC, providing a practical tool for systemic, human and organizational factors (HOF)-focused hazard identification that moves beyond traditional linear assessments. The findings provide actionable insights for enhancing MoC effectiveness by addressing critical socio-technical vulnerabilities in aviation and beyond.