Evaluation of the significant association between Climatic Variables and Malaria Cases in the Upper River Region of the Gambia.

Malaria has been a public health concern for many years in The Gambia, with reported increases in mortality and morbidity. Despite scaling down interventions, the incidence of malaria in the Upper River region persists and may be linked to the area's climatic conditions. The study examines how climatic variables correlate with malaria incidence. Data on monthly malaria cases for individuals under five and over five were obtained from the malaria department for 12 months, from 2011 to 2022, along with corresponding meteorological data-maximum and minimum temperatures, rainfall, and relative humidity-collected from the Water Resources Department in Banjul, The Gambia. A Kendall rank correlation assessed the strength of the associations, and a negative binomial model evaluated the risk rates for each parameter. The odds of incidence of malaria increase by 3 %-4 % in <5 years and 6 %-9 % in >5 years with relative humidity at a >1 % significance level, while decreasing by 20 %-14 % in <5 years and by 21 %-15 % in >5 years with maximum temperature at the same significance level, in unadjusted and adjusted model respectively. The results implicated relative humidity to be a major influencing factor of malaria incidence in the studied region. Therefore, more effective malaria control and prevention programs could be aligned with key climatic indicators to enhance impact and reduce malaria cases in the Upper River Region of The Gambia.