Modelling transmission dynamics and genomic diversity in a recombining parasite population.

The genomic diversity of a parasite population is shaped by its transmission dynamics but superinfection, cotranmission and recombination make this relationship complex and hard to analyse. This paper aims to simplify the problem by introducing the concept of a genomic transmission graph with three basic parameters: the effective number of hosts, the quantum of transmission and the crossing rate of transmission chains. This enables rapid simulation of coalescence times in a recombining parasite population with superinfection and cotransmission, and it also provides a mathematical framework for analysis of within-host variation. Taking malaria as an example, we use this theoretical model to examine how transmission dynamics and migration affect parasite genomic diversity, including the effective recombination rate and haplotypic metrics of recent common ancestry. We show how key transmission parameters can be inferred from deep sequencing data and as a proof of concept we estimate the Plasmodium falciparum transmission bottleneck. Finally we discuss the potential applications of this novel inferential framework in genomic surveillance for malaria control and elimination. Online tools for exploring the genomic transmission graph are available at d-kwiat.github.io/gtg.