Spatial patterns and prediction of the temporal spread of cattle theileriosis in Jambi Province, Indonesia.

BACKGROUND

Bovine theileriosis is a tick-borne disease that can cause economic losses worldwide, including in tropical countries such as Indonesia. In some regions of Indonesia, cattle are one of the most important commodities that play a role in sustaining economic flow, including in Jambi Province.

AIM: This study aimed to determine the prevalence, spatial distribution, and prediction trends of the disease up to 2027 in Jambi Province, Indonesia.

METHODS

Retrospective data were obtained from active and passive surveillance in Jambi Province and used for calculating the prevalence, with 6,868 cases recorded between 2018 and 2023. Spatial analysis was conducted using the R software (version 4.3.1), while time series forecasting was performed using Python on the Google Colab platform.

RESULTS

The overall prevalence during the study period was 8.07% (554/6868, 95% CI, 74.2%-8.71%). Spatial autocorrelation analysis using Moran's I statistic resulted in a value of 0.17, with a standard deviation of 1.17 and a p-value of 0.12, indicating that the distribution of cases was random across the province. The forecasting analysis suggests that the prevalence is likely to remain stable through 2027, within a projected range of 0%-10%.

CONCLUSION

The current prevalence of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province is relatively low; however, the potential risk of disease introduction and spread from other regions remains. Preventive and control strategies are essential to safeguard the health of cattle and limit the transmission of bovine theileriosis in Jambi Province.