Frontiers in public health · 2024
A novel multivariate logistic model for predicting risk factors of failed treatment with carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii ventilator-associated pneumonia.
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Sun Ke, Peng Fangchen, Xu Kaiqiang, Liu Yong, Zhou Xuanping, Shang Nan, Li Chao
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to explore the risk factors for failed treatment of carbapenem-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii ventilator-associated pneumonia (CRAB-VAP) with tigecycline and to establish a predictive model to predict the incidence of failed treatment and the prognosis of CRAB-VAP.
METHODS: A total of 189 CRAB-VAP patients were included in the safety analysis set from two Grade 3 A national-level hospitals between 1 January 2022 and 31 December 2022. The risk factors for failed treatment with CRAB-VAP were identified using univariate analysis, multivariate logistic analysis, and an independent nomogram to show the results.
RESULTS: Of the 189 patients, 106 (56.1%) patients were in the successful treatment group, and 83 (43.9%) patients were in the failed treatment group. The multivariate logistic model analysis showed that age (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.07, p = 0.001), yes. of hypoproteinemia (OR = 2.43, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.90, p = 0.013), the daily dose of 200 mg (OR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.07, 5.00, p = 0.034), yes. of medication within 14 days prior to surgical intervention (OR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.19, 7.44, p = 0.019), and no. of microbial clearance (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.70, p = 0.005) were risk factors for the failure of tigecycline treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the AUC area of the prediction model was 0.745 (0.675-0.815), and the decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the model was effective in clinical practice.
CONCLUSION: Age, hypoproteinemia, daily dose, medication within 14 days prior to surgical intervention, and microbial clearance are all significant risk factors for failed treatment with CRAB-VAP, with the nomogram model indicating that high age was the most important factor. Because the failure rate of CRAB-VAP treatment with tigecycline was high, this prediction model can help doctors correct or avoid risk factors during clinical treatment.
METHODS: A total of 189 CRAB-VAP patients were included in the safety analysis set from two Grade 3 A national-level hospitals between 1 January 2022 and 31 December 2022. The risk factors for failed treatment with CRAB-VAP were identified using univariate analysis, multivariate logistic analysis, and an independent nomogram to show the results.
RESULTS: Of the 189 patients, 106 (56.1%) patients were in the successful treatment group, and 83 (43.9%) patients were in the failed treatment group. The multivariate logistic model analysis showed that age (OR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.07, p = 0.001), yes. of hypoproteinemia (OR = 2.43, 95% CI: 1.20, 4.90, p = 0.013), the daily dose of 200 mg (OR = 2.31, 95% CI: 1.07, 5.00, p = 0.034), yes. of medication within 14 days prior to surgical intervention (OR = 2.98, 95% CI: 1.19, 7.44, p = 0.019), and no. of microbial clearance (OR = 0.31, 95% CI: 0.14, 0.70, p = 0.005) were risk factors for the failure of tigecycline treatment. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis showed that the AUC area of the prediction model was 0.745 (0.675-0.815), and the decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the model was effective in clinical practice.
CONCLUSION: Age, hypoproteinemia, daily dose, medication within 14 days prior to surgical intervention, and microbial clearance are all significant risk factors for failed treatment with CRAB-VAP, with the nomogram model indicating that high age was the most important factor. Because the failure rate of CRAB-VAP treatment with tigecycline was high, this prediction model can help doctors correct or avoid risk factors during clinical treatment.