Epidemiologia e servicos de saude : revista do Sistema Unico de Saude do Brasil · 2020
Visceral Leishmaniasis: temporal and spatial distribution in Fortaleza, Ceará State, Brazil, 2007-2017.
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Almeida Clarice Pessoa, Cavalcante Francisco Roger Aguiar, Moreno Jarier de Oliveira, Florêncio Caroline Mary Gurgel Dias, Cavalcante Kellyn Kessiene de Sousa, Alencar Carlos Henrique
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the temporal trend and describe the spatial distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) in Fortaleza from 2007 to 2017.
METHODS: This was an ecological study using segmented temporal regression and thematic mapping.
RESULTS: Between 2007-2017, 1,660 new cases and 97 deaths were confirmed. The overall incidence rate showed a rising trend (Annual Percent Change - APC=8.7% - 95%CI -3.3;34.1), while the mortality rate (APC=-25.9 - 95%CI -48.5;-10.6) and lethality (APC=-33.0 - 95%CI -53.7;-17.6) showed a falling trend. From 2010-2015 the incidence rate fell (APC=-15.8 - 95%CI -25.1;-4.0), but mortality (APC=18.7 - 95%CI 9.4;50.6) and lethality (APC=40.1 - 95%CI 22.5;72.0) had an upward trend. In 2015-2017, incidence (APC=-24.6 - 95%CI -36.2;-10.3), and mortality (APC=-44.6 - 95%CI -58.8;-17,6) fell, while lethality remained stable (APC=-13.5 - 95%CI -38.7;3.8). High incidence neighborhoods were clustered in the western region of the city, however, mortality and lethality did not present defined spatial patterns.
CONCLUSION: VL is endemic in Fortaleza, although there was a reduction in the last three years studied.
METHODS: This was an ecological study using segmented temporal regression and thematic mapping.
RESULTS: Between 2007-2017, 1,660 new cases and 97 deaths were confirmed. The overall incidence rate showed a rising trend (Annual Percent Change - APC=8.7% - 95%CI -3.3;34.1), while the mortality rate (APC=-25.9 - 95%CI -48.5;-10.6) and lethality (APC=-33.0 - 95%CI -53.7;-17.6) showed a falling trend. From 2010-2015 the incidence rate fell (APC=-15.8 - 95%CI -25.1;-4.0), but mortality (APC=18.7 - 95%CI 9.4;50.6) and lethality (APC=40.1 - 95%CI 22.5;72.0) had an upward trend. In 2015-2017, incidence (APC=-24.6 - 95%CI -36.2;-10.3), and mortality (APC=-44.6 - 95%CI -58.8;-17,6) fell, while lethality remained stable (APC=-13.5 - 95%CI -38.7;3.8). High incidence neighborhoods were clustered in the western region of the city, however, mortality and lethality did not present defined spatial patterns.
CONCLUSION: VL is endemic in Fortaleza, although there was a reduction in the last three years studied.