Impact of Measles, Mumps, and Rubella Vaccination on Hospitalizations and Human Capital: Evidence from Copenhagen School Health Records.

Background: This paper investigates the long-term effects of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine on healthcare, education, and economic outcomes using a novel dataset from the Copenhagen School Health Records Register. Methods: To address potential endogeneity, we use within-sibling variation in vaccination status induced by different periods of vaccine availability in Denmark. Results: Our findings reveal that, prior to the establishment of herd immunity, vaccinated cohorts experienced substantial protection against hospitalizations related to MMR. During the same period, we also observe modest improvements in educational outcomes and positive-though statistically insignificant-estimates for labor market outcomes among siblings with discordant vaccination status. We find no impact of vaccination on hospitalizations, education, or economic outcomes for cohorts born after herd immunity was established, a period when everyone benefited from herd protection regardless of individual vaccination status. Conclusions: MMR vaccination, before herd immunity, reduced hospitalization due to Measles, Mumps, and Rubella. The impact on later outcomes, such as education, income, and employment lacks statistical precision at conventional levels. Evidence suggest positive self-selection in vaccination among families with high socioeconomic status.