[Application of autoregressive integrated moving average model to predict and analyze the incidence trend of mumps in Jiangxi Province].

Objective

To predict and analyze the incidence trend of mumps using the Autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) in Jiangxi Province.

Methods

The ARIMA was used to model the number of mumps cases per month from 2015 to 2019 in Jiangxi Province. The number of mumps cases in 12 months was predicted and was compared with the actual reported cases in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively.

Results

The optimal model was ARIMA (0,2,1)(1,2,0)12. The predicted number of cases was significantly higher than that reported in 2020, 2021 and 2022. The number of reported cases of mumps in 2020, 2021, and 2022 decreased by 54.02%, 63.40%, and 66.09% compared with the forecast.

Conclusions

From 2020 to 2022, the reported incidence of mumps in Jiangxi Province was significantly lower than the predicted incidence. Considering that it was related to non-drug intervention measures and changes in immunization strategies, it was suggested to strengthen mumps surveillance further to better cope with the epidemic situation of mumps.