Journal of surgical oncology · 2019
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting overall survival of node-negative ampullary carcinoma.
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Huang Xi-Tai, Huang Chen-Song, Chen Wei, Cai Jian-Peng, Gan Tian-Tian, Zhao Ying, Liu Qi, Liang Li-Jian, Yin Xiao-Yu
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The accuracy of the current staging system for predicting the overall survival (OS) of patients with ampullary carcinoma (AC) is still unsatisfactory, especially in node-negative (N0) patients. We aimed at establishing a nomogram to accurately predict OS in N0 AC.
METHODS: This study enrolled 697 N0 AC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (design cohort [DC], n = 697) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (validation cohort [VC], n = 112), who underwent surgical resection. The nomogram was established by using prognostic factors determined by univariate and multivariate regression analyses.
RESULTS: The nomogram for OS was developed by using four independent prognostic factors, including age, grade, T stage, and a number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of a nomogram for OS in DC and VC was 0.665 and 0.731, respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency of the nomogram. The nomogram had a better accuracy in predicting OS compared with conventional staging system (P < .05). On the basis of nomogram-predicted scores, the patients were stratified into groups with different risk. The OS of low-risk patients was significantly longer than high-risk ones (P ≤ .010).
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram could be used to predict the OS of N0 AC. It could help guide further treatment in clinical practice.
METHODS: This study enrolled 697 N0 AC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (design cohort [DC], n = 697) and the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University (validation cohort [VC], n = 112), who underwent surgical resection. The nomogram was established by using prognostic factors determined by univariate and multivariate regression analyses.
RESULTS: The nomogram for OS was developed by using four independent prognostic factors, including age, grade, T stage, and a number of examined lymph nodes. The C-index of a nomogram for OS in DC and VC was 0.665 and 0.731, respectively. Calibration curves showed good consistency of the nomogram. The nomogram had a better accuracy in predicting OS compared with conventional staging system (P < .05). On the basis of nomogram-predicted scores, the patients were stratified into groups with different risk. The OS of low-risk patients was significantly longer than high-risk ones (P ≤ .010).
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram could be used to predict the OS of N0 AC. It could help guide further treatment in clinical practice.