Clinical gastroenterology and hepatology : the official clinical practice journal of the American Gastroenterological Association · 2024
The Revised Kyoto Criteria and Risk of Malignancy Among Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.
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Hamada Tsuyoshi, Oyama Hiroki, Tange Shuichi, Hakuta Ryunosuke, Ishigaki Kazunaga, Kanai Sachiko, Kawaguchi Yoshikuni, Noguchi Kensaku, Saito Tomotaka, Sato Tatsuya, Suzuki Tatsunori, Takahara Naminatsu, Tanaka Mariko, Hasegawa Kiyoshi, Ushiku Tetsuo, Nakai Yousuke, Fujishiro Mitsuhiro
Аннотация
BACKGROUND & AIMS: The revised Kyoto guidelines have a new catalog of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features for the risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). We aimed to validate the stratification system in terms of short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma.
METHODS: We included 3336 patients diagnosed with IPMNs in 2000-2021 and examined short-term (≤6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis. We used the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios for long-term incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders.
RESULTS: In short-term analyses, pancreatic carcinomas were prevalent predominantly in IPMNs with high-risk stigmata (49% vs 1.3% and 0.05% in IPMNs with worrisome features and no risk factors, respectively). In long-term analyses of worrisome features, the main pancreatic duct diameter of 5-9.9 mm, acute pancreatitis, and IPMN growth rate of 2.5 mm/y were associated with a high incidence with multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios of 3.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-5.89), 5.65 (95% CI, 1.86-17.2), and 3.83 (95% CI, 2.14-6.86), respectively. An increasing number of worrisome features at baseline was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma (Ptrend < .001). Patients with 1, 2, and 3-4 worrisome features had multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios for pancreatic cancer incidence of 1.43 (95% CI, 0.93-2.19), 2.17 (95% CI, 1.17-4.05), and 10.1 (95% CI, 4.20-24.5), respectively (vs no positive feature).
CONCLUSIONS: The revised Kyoto criteria stratify IPMN patients well in terms of the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis, potentially informing personalized patient management.
METHODS: We included 3336 patients diagnosed with IPMNs in 2000-2021 and examined short-term (≤6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis. We used the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios for long-term incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders.
RESULTS: In short-term analyses, pancreatic carcinomas were prevalent predominantly in IPMNs with high-risk stigmata (49% vs 1.3% and 0.05% in IPMNs with worrisome features and no risk factors, respectively). In long-term analyses of worrisome features, the main pancreatic duct diameter of 5-9.9 mm, acute pancreatitis, and IPMN growth rate of 2.5 mm/y were associated with a high incidence with multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios of 3.46 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.04-5.89), 5.65 (95% CI, 1.86-17.2), and 3.83 (95% CI, 2.14-6.86), respectively. An increasing number of worrisome features at baseline was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma (Ptrend < .001). Patients with 1, 2, and 3-4 worrisome features had multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios for pancreatic cancer incidence of 1.43 (95% CI, 0.93-2.19), 2.17 (95% CI, 1.17-4.05), and 10.1 (95% CI, 4.20-24.5), respectively (vs no positive feature).
CONCLUSIONS: The revised Kyoto criteria stratify IPMN patients well in terms of the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis, potentially informing personalized patient management.