Natural history of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection in children: prognostic value of laboratory tests on the bimodal progression of the disease.

This study analyzes the correlation of basic laboratory test results with clinical outcome in 94 children with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus 1 infection who did not receive zidovudine during the study period of 1983 to 1988. Two life-threatening conditions highly correlated with survival, opportunistic infection and severe encephalopathy, were the end points of the study. At a median age of 25 months 30 (32%) of the 94 children had developed such conditions (Group I), and their survival at 3 years of age was 48% (95% confidence interval, 24 to 72%), contrasting with the 97% survival rate (95% confidence interval, 94 to 100%) of the remaining 64 (68%) children who had not developed such conditions by age 25 months. (Group II). Compared with children in Group II, children with life-threatening complications were more likely at the onset of symptoms to be younger and have a lower CD4 count, an impaired in vitro lymphocytic proliferation and a lack of p18 or p25 antibodies in the Western blot profile and, during the progression of the disease, a negative slope of the subsequent CD4 counts. These results highlight the need for an early diagnosis of the human immunodeficiency virus 1 infection in children and demonstrate that it is possible to determine the prognosis of their disease as early as in the first year of life.