Protocol-aware epidemic forecasting across heterogeneous public health surveillance systems.

PURPOSE: Public-health forecasting is central to epidemic intelligence and operational decision support. In practice, surveillance data are affected by reporting delays, revisions, and backfill, as well as abrupt regime shifts, which often reduce model reliability across regions and systems.

METHODS

We developed EpiMap-LLM, a protocol-aware forecasting approach that links epidemic dynamics with surveillance context using a frozen language-model backbone and lightweight trainable components.

RESULTS

Across daily and weekly surveillance settings (JHU CSSE COVID-19 and CDC influenza hospitalization surveillance), EpiMap-LLM consistently improves MAE and RMSE over strong forecasting baselines.

CONCLUSION

Protocol-aware forecasting improves robustness and practical usefulness for surveillance dashboards, early warning, and public-health decision support in heterogeneous reporting systems.