Optimising the introduction of multiple childhood vaccines in Japan: A model proposing the introduction sequence achieving the highest health gains.

BACKGROUND

Many countries struggle with the prioritisation of introducing new vaccines because of budget limitations and lack of focus on public health goals. A model has been developed that defines how specific health goals can be optimised through immunisation within vaccination budget constraints.

METHODS

Japan, as a country example, could introduce 4 new pediatric vaccines targeting influenza, rotavirus, pneumococcal disease and mumps with known burden of disease, vaccine efficacies and maximum achievable coverages. Operating under budget constraints, the Portfolio-model for the Management of Vaccines (PMV) identifies the optimal vaccine ranking and combination for achieving the maximum QALY gain over a period of 10 calendar years in children <5 years old. This vaccine strategy, of interest and helpful for a healthcare decision maker, is compared with an unranked vaccine selection process.

RESULTS

Results indicate that the maximum QALY gain with a fixed annual vaccination budget of 500 billion Japanese Yen over a 10-year period is 72,288 QALYs using the optimal sequence of vaccine introduction (mumps [1st], followed by influenza [2nd], rotavirus [3rd], and pneumococcal [4th]). With exactly the same budget but without vaccine ranking, the total QALY gain can be 20% lower.

CONCLUSION

The PMV model could be a helpful tool for decision makers in those environments with limited budget where vaccines have to be selected for trying to optimise specific health goals.