Spatial-Temporal Trends of Cancer Among Women in Central Serbia, 1999-2021: Implications for Disaster and Public Health Preparedness.

BACKGROUND/

OBJECTIVES

Cancer is a major public health burden in Serbia and a factor influencing long-term disaster readiness by straining health system capacity. This study examined spatial and temporal trends in incidence and mortality for eight major cancers among women in Central Serbia (1999-2021) to inform targeted prevention and preparedness strategies.

METHODS

Standardised rates from national datasets were analysed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and Sen's slope estimator. Geographic disparities were mapped in ArcGIS Pro 3.2. Mortality trends were assessed only for statistically reliable series.

RESULTS

Breast cancer incidence increased in six counties, while cervical cancer declined in several areas, likely reflecting screening success. Colorectal, bladder, pancreatic, and lung and bronchus cancers showed rising incidence; lung and bronchus cancer mortality increased in 16 counties, indicating growing demand for chronic respiratory care. These shifts may reduce surge capacity during disasters by increasing the baseline burden on healthcare infrastructure. Regional disparities highlight uneven system resilience.

CONCLUSIONS

Aligning cancer control measures-especially for high-burden cancers like lung-with emergency preparedness frameworks is essential to strengthen health system resilience, particularly in resource-limited regions.