Association rule mining in the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS).

PURPOSE: Spontaneous adverse event reporting systems are critical tools for monitoring the safety of licensed medical products. Commonly used signal detection algorithms identify disproportionate product-adverse event pairs and may not be sensitive to more complex potential signals. We sought to develop a computationally tractable multivariate data-mining approach to identify product-multiple adverse event associations.

METHODS

We describe an application of stepwise association rule mining (Step-ARM) to detect potential vaccine-symptom group associations in the US Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System. Step-ARM identifies strong associations between one vaccine and one or more adverse events. To reduce the number of redundant association rules found by Step-ARM, we also propose a clustering method for the post-processing of association rules.

RESULTS

In sample applications to a trivalent intradermal inactivated influenza virus vaccine and to measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella (MMRV) vaccine and in simulation studies, we find that Step-ARM can detect a variety of medically coherent potential vaccine-symptom group signals efficiently. In the MMRV example, Step-ARM appears to outperform univariate methods in detecting a known safety signal.

CONCLUSIONS

Our approach is sensitive to potentially complex signals, which may be particularly important when monitoring novel medical countermeasure products such as pandemic influenza vaccines. The post-processing clustering algorithm improves the applicability of the approach as a screening method to identify patterns that may merit further investigation.