Clinical Indicators That Identify Risk of Deteriorating and Dying in People with a Hematological Malignancy: A Case-Control Study with Multivariable Analysis.

BACKGROUND

Identifying people who are at risk of deteriorating and dying is essential to inform goals of care, appropriate treatment decisions, patient autonomy, and effective end-of-life care. Limited literature exists on predicting survival near the end of life for people with a hematological malignancy.

OBJECTIVE

To identify the key clinical indicators that signal a person with a hematological malignancy is at high risk of deteriorating and dying.

DESIGN, SETTING,

PARTICIPANTS

Eleven clinical indicators identified in a Delphi approach were tested via a retrospective case-control study. Each indicator was assessed for at each in-patient admission between living (n = 236) and deceased (n = 120) people with a hematological malignancy who were admitted to a large tertiary hospital between 1st July 2014 and 31st December 2015.

RESULTS

Six clinical indicators were independently associated with mortality in the final three months of life: declining performance status (Odds Ratio [OR] 7.153, 95% Confidence Intervals [CI] 3.281-15.597, p = < 0.001); treatment limitations of the hematological malignancy (OR 7.855, 95% CI 3.528-17.489, p = < 0.001); relapse, refractory or persistent disease (OR 3.749, 95% CI 1.749-8.039, p = 0.001); presence of two or more comorbidities (OR 2.991, 95% CI 1.319-6.781, p = 0.009); invasive fungal infections (OR 4.887, 95% CI 1.197-19.949, p = 0.027); and persistent infections (OR 6.072, 95% CI 2.551-14.457, p = < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study has identified six clinical indicators that signal a person with a hematological malignancy is at high risk of deteriorating and dying and may benefit from an assessment of palliative needs and proactive planning, along-side appropriate treatment.