The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions.
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Goh Rachel Sze Jen, Chong Bryan, Jayabaskaran Jayanth, Jauhari Silingga Metta, Chan Siew Pang, Kueh Martin Tze Wah, Shankar Kannan, Li Henry, Chin Yip Han, Kong Gwyneth, Anand Vickram Vijay, Chan Keith Andrew, Sukmawati Indah, Toh Sue Anne, Muthiah Mark, Wang Jiong-Wei, Tse Gary, Mehta Anurag, Fong Alan, Baskaran Lohendran, Zhong Liang, Yap Jonathan, Yeo Khung Keong, Hausenloy Derek J, Tan Jack Wei Chieh, Chao Tze-Fan, Li Yi-Heng, Lim Shir Lynn, Chan Koo Hui, Loh Poay Huan, Chai Ping, Yeo Tiong Cheng, Low Adrian F, Lee Chi Hang, Foo Roger, Tan Huay Cheem, Yip James, Rao Sarita, Honda Satoshi, Yasuda Satoshi, Kajiya Takashi, Goto Shinya, Yan Bryan P, Zhou Xin, Figtree Gemma A, Mamas Mamas A, Kim Yongcheol, Jeong Young-Hoon, Kim Moo Hyun, Park Duk-Woo, Park Seung-Jung, Richards A Mark, Chan Mark Y, Lip Gregory Y H, Chew Nicholas W S
Аннотация
METHODS: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.
FINDINGS: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).
INTERPRETATION: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.
FUNDING: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).