Cancer epidemiology · 2025
Trends and cross-country inequalities in the global, regional, and national burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer from 1990 to 2021, along with the predictions for 2035.
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Bao Wen, Qiao Lichun, Li Miaoqian, Shi Guoming, Liu Liang
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: The global burden of gallbladder and biliary tract cancer (GBTC) is on the rise.
METHODS: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.
RESULTS: In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990-2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.
CONCLUSIONS: The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.
METHODS: The incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of GBTC from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Diseases Study (GBD) 2021. The Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort (BAPC) model was also employed to project disease trends for the next 15 years.
RESULTS: In 2021, new GBTC cases observed globally amounted to 216,768, with 171,961 mortality and 3732,121 DALYs. From 1990-2021, a notable surge was recorded in the incidence of GBTC by 101 %, mortality by 74.26 %, and DALYs by 60.45 %. Regions with superior Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) reflected elevated incidence and mortality rates. However, a significant decrease was noticed in the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR). Despite a reduction in health disparities among countries, differences remain. Prognostications predict a continual decline in global ASIR and ASMR through 2035.
CONCLUSIONS: The study found that the burden of GBTC in incidences, mortalities, and DALYs has been on the rise, with some correlation with socio-economic development.