The Bayes factor in the analysis of mechanical power in patients with severe respiratory failure due to SARS-CoV-2.

OBJECTIVE

To specify the degree of probative force of the statistical hypotheses in relation to mortality at 28 days and the threshold value of 17 J/min mechanical power (MP) in patients with respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2.

DESIGN

Cohort study, longitudinal, analytical.

SETTING

Intensive care unit of a third level hospital in Spain.

PATIENTS: Patients admitted for SARS-CoV-2 infection with admission to the ICU between March 2020 and March 2022.

INTERVENTIONS: Bayesian analysis with the beta binomial model.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST: Bayes factor, mechanical power.

RESULTS

A total of 253 patients were analyzed. Baseline respiratory rate (BF10: 3.83 × 106), peak pressure value (BF10: 3.72 × 1013) and neumothorax (BF10: 17,663) were the values most likely to be different between the two groups of patients compared. In the group of patients with MP < 17 J/min, a BF10 of 12.71 and a BF01 of 0.07 were established with an 95%CI of 0.27-0.58. For the group of patients with MP ≥ 17 J/min the BF10 was 36,100 and the BF01 of 2.77e-05 with an 95%CI of 0.42-0.72.

CONCLUSIONS

A MP ≥ 17 J/min value is associated with extreme evidence with 28-day mortality in patients requiring MV due to respiratory failure secondary to SARS-CoV-2 disease.