Modelling the epidemiology, transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis.

Wuchereria bancrofti transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus accounts for >90% of the global burden of lymphatic filariasis (LF). Recent advances in diagnostic and control tools and a better epidemiological understanding of the disease have led to hope that LF is eradicable. The World Health Organization has helped a number of member countries to launch nation-wide programmes of mass treatment with antifilarial drugs such as diethylcarbamazine, albendazole and ivermectin, for the elimination of this disease. In order to make rational decisions about control strategies, reliable predictions of the long-term impact of such treatment, and of alternative interventions, need to be made, and these can only be based on a sound, quantitative understanding of the population biology of the parasites. Mathematical models have proven valuable in gaining quantitative insights into the population dynamics of the parasites, and may be used to make credible predictions of the likely outcomes of various control strategies. This article provides an overview of the development of the relevant mathematical/statistical models and of their application in studies of the epidemiology, transmission and control of lymphatic filariasis.