Predicting Quality of Life in Parkinson's Disease: A Machine Learning Approach Employing Common Clinical Variables.

Background

Parkinson's Disease significantly impacts health-related quality of life, with the Parkinson's Disease Questionnaire-39 extensively used for its assessment. However, predicting such outcomes remains a challenge due to the subjective nature and variability in patient experiences. This study develops a machine learning model using accessible clinical data to enable predictions of life-quality outcomes in Parkinson's Disease and utilizes explainable machine learning techniques to identify key influencing factors, offering actionable insights for clinicians.

Methods

Data from the Parkinson's Real-world Impact Assessment study (PRISM), involving 861 patients across six European countries, were analyzed. After excluding incomplete data, 627 complete observations were used for the analysis. An ensemble machine learning model was developed with a 90% training and 10% validation split.

Results

The model demonstrated a Mean Absolute Error of 4.82, a Root Mean Squared Error of 8.09, and an R2 of 0.75 in the training set, indicating a strong model fit. In the validation set, the model achieved a Mean Absolute Error of 11.22, a Root Mean Squared Error of 13.99, and an R2 of 0.36, showcasing moderate variation. Key predictors such as age at diagnosis, patient's country, dementia, and patient's age were identified, providing insights into the model's decision-making process.

Conclusions

This study presents a robust model capable of predicting the impact of Parkinson's Disease on patients' quality of life using common clinical variables. These results demonstrate the potential of machine learning to enhance clinical decision-making and patient care, suggesting directions for future research to improve model generalizability and applicability.