Long-Term Effect of Temperature Increase on Liver Cancer in Australia: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis.

BACKGROUND

While some evidence has potentially linked climate change to carcinogenic factors, the long-term effect of climate change on liver cancer risk largely remains unclear.

OBJECTIVES

Our objective is to evaluate the long-term relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer incidence in Australia.

METHODS

We mapped the spatial distribution of liver cancer incidence from 2001 to 2019 in Australia. A Bayesian spatial conditional autoregressive (CAR) model was used to estimate the relationships between the increase in temperature at different lags and liver cancer incidence in Australia, after controlling for chronic hepatitis B prevalence, chronic hepatitis C prevalence, and the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage. Spatial random effects obtained from the Bayesian CAR model were also mapped.

RESULTS

The research showed that the distribution of liver cancer in Australia is spatially clustered, most areas in Northern Territory and Northern Queensland have higher incidence and relative risk. The increase in temperature at the lag of 30 years was found to correlate with the increase in liver cancer incidence in Australia, with a posterior mean of 30.57 [95% Bayesian credible interval (CrI): 0.17, 58.88] for the univariate model and 29.50 (95% CrI: 1.27, 58.95) after controlling for confounders, respectively. The results were not highly credible for other lags.

DISCUSSION: Our Bayesian spatial analysis suggested a potential relationship between temperature increase and liver cancer. To our knowledge, this research marks the first attempt to assess the long-term effect of global warming on liver cancer. If the relationship is confirmed by other studies, these findings may inform the development of prevention and mitigation strategies based on climate change projections. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP14574.