BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2023
Prediction of inappropriate pre-hospital transfer of patients with suspected cardiovascular emergency diseases using machine learning: a retrospective observational study.
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Kim Ji Hoon, Kim Bomgyeol, Kim Min Joung, Hyun Heejung, Kim Hyeon Chang, Chang Hyuk-Jae
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a prediction model for transferring patients to an inappropriate hospital for suspected cardiovascular emergency diseases at the pre-hospital stage, using variables obtained from an integrated nationwide dataset, and to assess the performance of this model.
METHODS: We integrated three nationwide datasets and developed a two-step prediction model utilizing a machine learning algorithm. Ninety-eight clinical characteristics of patients identified at the pre-hospital stage and 13 hospital components were used as input data for the model. The primary endpoint of the model was the prediction of transfer to an inappropriate hospital.
RESULTS: A total of 94,256 transferred patients in the public pre-hospital care system matched the National Emergency Department Information System data of patients with a pre-hospital cardiovascular registry created in South Korea between July 2017 and December 2018. Of these, 1,770 (6.26%) patients failed to be transferred to a capable hospital. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final predictive model was 0.813 (0.800-0.825), and the area under the receiver precision-recall curve was 0.286 (0.265-0.308).
CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model used machine learning to show favorable performance in transferring patients with suspected cardiovascular disease to a capable hospital. For our results to lead to changes in the pre-hospital care system, a digital platform for sharing real-time information should be developed.
METHODS: We integrated three nationwide datasets and developed a two-step prediction model utilizing a machine learning algorithm. Ninety-eight clinical characteristics of patients identified at the pre-hospital stage and 13 hospital components were used as input data for the model. The primary endpoint of the model was the prediction of transfer to an inappropriate hospital.
RESULTS: A total of 94,256 transferred patients in the public pre-hospital care system matched the National Emergency Department Information System data of patients with a pre-hospital cardiovascular registry created in South Korea between July 2017 and December 2018. Of these, 1,770 (6.26%) patients failed to be transferred to a capable hospital. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the final predictive model was 0.813 (0.800-0.825), and the area under the receiver precision-recall curve was 0.286 (0.265-0.308).
CONCLUSIONS: Our prediction model used machine learning to show favorable performance in transferring patients with suspected cardiovascular disease to a capable hospital. For our results to lead to changes in the pre-hospital care system, a digital platform for sharing real-time information should be developed.