Can the results of contemporary aortic valve replacement be improved?

Although the results of contemporary aortic valve replacement are excellent, cardiac surgeons must identify the factors that predict postoperative morbidity and mortality to develop alternative strategies for high-risk patients. Two hundred seventy-seven consecutive patients undergoing isolated aortic valve replacement between 1982 and 1984 were evaluated. Thirty-seven clinical and 13 preoperative hemodynamic variables were analyzed by univariate and multivariate statistics to determine the risk factors for postoperative morbidity and mortality. The operative mortality was 3%, the incidence of a postoperative low output syndrome was 12%, and the incidence of a perioperative myocardial infarction was 5%. A multivariate, logistic regression analysis found that age was the only the only independent predictor of mortality. Three factors independently predicted postoperative low output syndrome: age, the presence of coronary artery disease, and the peak systolic gradient in patients with aortic stenosis. Patients with aortic stenosis had a higher incidence of postoperative ventricular dysfunction (17%) than those with mixed valvular disease (9%) or aortic regurgitation (5%). Perioperative myocardial infarction was predicted by the extent of coronary artery disease. The incidence of perioperative myocardial infarction was higher in patients with triple-vessel coronary artery disease (13%) and those with left main stenosis (18%) than in patients with single- or double-vessel disease (4%) or those without coronary artery disease (4%). Because of the higher risk of aortic valve replacement in older patients, the risk-benefit ratio of the operation must be carefully assessed in the elderly. Improved methods of myocardial protection may reduce the risks for patients with aortic stenosis and symptomatic triple-vessel coronary artery disease.