Tobacco control · 2026
Measuring illicit cigarette purchases in Bolivia: evidence from an intercept survey.
СтатьяНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
Обработка статьи · этапы, ошибки и управление
Загрузка состояния…
Ошибки и ограничения
История · было → стало
Состояние обновляется каждые 5 секунд, пока блок открыт. Процент показывается только там, где известен объём работы. Пауза останавливает продолжение этапа; текущий запрос к источнику может завершиться.
Morales Joaquín, Finot Javier Ignacio, Arteaga Sofia, Chumacero Mauricio, Vargas Mateo, Pruzzo Luca, Paraje Guillermo
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Bolivia has one of the lowest tobacco tax rates in the Americas and shares a long border with Paraguay, a documented regional source of illicit cigarettes. The most recent estimate of illicit trade in Bolivia dates to 2002 and relied on industry-reported sales data. We provide the first independent, direct estimate of illicit cigarette penetration in the country.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 2366 adults who smoke in Bolivia's three largest metropolitan areas (La Paz/El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz) between July and August 2024. Cigarette packs were photographed and classified as illicit based on the absence of a Bolivian tax registration number, non-compliant health warnings or missing customs stamps for imported brands. Loose-cigarette purchases were classified using brand authorisation status and price-outlier rules. A probit model examined correlates of illicit purchase.
RESULTS: An estimated 38.1% of cigarette consumption in these cities is illicit, dominated by a single industrial-scale Paraguayan brand accounting for 85% of illicit sales. Penetration varies sharply by metropolitan area: 54.4% in Santa Cruz, 10.4% in La Paz/El Alto and 14.6% in Cochabamba. Because tax and tobacco-control policies are set nationally, these disparities cannot be explained by tax differentials and are more consistent with proximity to the Paraguayan border and local enforcement gaps.
CONCLUSIONS: The industry argument that higher tobacco taxes would drive illicit trade in Bolivia is not supported. Policy efforts should focus on the industrial-scale supply of illicit cigarettes through non-price policies related to enforcement (track and trace, licensing, etc) and regional enforcement cooperation, rather than on delaying domestic tax reform.
METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional survey of 2366 adults who smoke in Bolivia's three largest metropolitan areas (La Paz/El Alto, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz) between July and August 2024. Cigarette packs were photographed and classified as illicit based on the absence of a Bolivian tax registration number, non-compliant health warnings or missing customs stamps for imported brands. Loose-cigarette purchases were classified using brand authorisation status and price-outlier rules. A probit model examined correlates of illicit purchase.
RESULTS: An estimated 38.1% of cigarette consumption in these cities is illicit, dominated by a single industrial-scale Paraguayan brand accounting for 85% of illicit sales. Penetration varies sharply by metropolitan area: 54.4% in Santa Cruz, 10.4% in La Paz/El Alto and 14.6% in Cochabamba. Because tax and tobacco-control policies are set nationally, these disparities cannot be explained by tax differentials and are more consistent with proximity to the Paraguayan border and local enforcement gaps.
CONCLUSIONS: The industry argument that higher tobacco taxes would drive illicit trade in Bolivia is not supported. Policy efforts should focus on the industrial-scale supply of illicit cigarettes through non-price policies related to enforcement (track and trace, licensing, etc) and regional enforcement cooperation, rather than on delaying domestic tax reform.