Saudi journal of gastroenterology : official journal of the Saudi Gastroenterology Association · 2021
Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting varices needing treatment in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A multicenter study.
СтатьяМногоцентровое исследованиеНазвание и аннотация: Перевод пока не подготовлен
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Wang Jitao, Wei Wenxin, Duan Zhihui, Li Jinlong, Liu Yanna, Liu Chuan, Zhang Liting, Zhang Qingge, Zhou Shengyun, Zhang Kunpeng, Gao Fengxiao, Wang Xiaojuan, Liao Yong, Xu Dan, Huang Yifei, Wang Shuai, Hu Weiling, Mao Hua, Xu Ming, Dang Tong, Wu Bin, Yang Li, Liu Dengxiang, Qi Xiaolong
Аннотация
BACKGROUND: Only a small proportion of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) had varices needing treatment (VNT) after recommended esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening. We aimed to create a non-invasive nomogram based on routine tests to detect VNT in cACLD patients.
METHODS: The training cohort included 162 cACLD patients undergoing EGD in a university hospital, between January 2014 and September 2019. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors of VNT, selected using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Thirty-three patients from eight university hospitals were prospectively enrolled as validation cohort between December 2018 and December 2019.
RESULTS: The prevalence of VNT was 32.7% (53/162) and 39.4% (13/33) in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The univariate analysis identified six risk factors for VNT. On the multivariate analysis, four of them, i.e., gallbladder wall thickness (odds ratio [OR]: 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.56), spleen diameter (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), platelet count (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), and international normalized ratio (OR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.06-5.84) were independently associated with VNT. Thus, a nomogram based on the four above - mentioned variables was developed, and showed a favorable performance for detecting VNT, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.769-0.927) in training cohort. By applying a cut-off value of 105 in validation cohort, 31.0% of EGD were safely spared with 3.4% of missed VNT.
CONCLUSION: A nomogram based on routine clinical parameters was developed for detecting VNT and avoiding unnecessary EGD in cACLD patients.
METHODS: The training cohort included 162 cACLD patients undergoing EGD in a university hospital, between January 2014 and September 2019. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors of VNT, selected using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Thirty-three patients from eight university hospitals were prospectively enrolled as validation cohort between December 2018 and December 2019.
RESULTS: The prevalence of VNT was 32.7% (53/162) and 39.4% (13/33) in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The univariate analysis identified six risk factors for VNT. On the multivariate analysis, four of them, i.e., gallbladder wall thickness (odds ratio [OR]: 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.56), spleen diameter (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), platelet count (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), and international normalized ratio (OR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.06-5.84) were independently associated with VNT. Thus, a nomogram based on the four above - mentioned variables was developed, and showed a favorable performance for detecting VNT, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.769-0.927) in training cohort. By applying a cut-off value of 105 in validation cohort, 31.0% of EGD were safely spared with 3.4% of missed VNT.
CONCLUSION: A nomogram based on routine clinical parameters was developed for detecting VNT and avoiding unnecessary EGD in cACLD patients.