Journal of cardiothoracic surgery · 2024
Analysis of influencing factors and construction of risk prediction model for postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease.
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Song Changjun, Wu Yicai, Liu Yuanyuan, Zhang Jun, Peng Jingliang, Zhou Yuming, Yi Lulu
Аннотация
OBJECTIVE: To analyze the influencing factors of postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease and construct a nomogram prediction model.
METHODS: From October 2022 to October 2023, 319 critically ill patients with heart disease who visited our hospital were collected and separated into postoperative thrombocytopenia group (n = 142) and no postoperative thrombocytopenia group (n = 177) based on their postoperative thrombocytopenia, Logistic regression analysis was applied to screen risk factors for postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease; R software was applied to construct a nomogram for predicting postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease, and ROC curves, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests were applied to evaluate nomogram.
RESULTS: A total of 142 out of 319 critically ill patients had postoperative thrombocytopenia, accounting for 44.51%. Logistic regression analysis showed that gender (95% CI 1.607-4.402, P = 0.000), age ≥ 60 years (95% CI 1.380-3.697, P = 0.001), preoperative antiplatelet therapy (95% CI 1.254-3.420, P = 0.004), and extracorporeal circulation time > 120 min (95% CI 1.681-4.652, P = 0.000) were independent risk factors for postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease. The area under the ROC curve was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.663-0.774). The slope of the calibration curve was close to 1, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was χ2 = 6.422, P = 0.491.
CONCLUSION: Postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease is influenced by gender, age ≥ 60 years, preoperative antiplatelet therapy, and extracorporeal circulation time > 120 min. A nomogram established based on above multiple independent risk factors provides a method for clinical prediction of the risk of postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease.
METHODS: From October 2022 to October 2023, 319 critically ill patients with heart disease who visited our hospital were collected and separated into postoperative thrombocytopenia group (n = 142) and no postoperative thrombocytopenia group (n = 177) based on their postoperative thrombocytopenia, Logistic regression analysis was applied to screen risk factors for postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease; R software was applied to construct a nomogram for predicting postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease, and ROC curves, calibration curves, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit tests were applied to evaluate nomogram.
RESULTS: A total of 142 out of 319 critically ill patients had postoperative thrombocytopenia, accounting for 44.51%. Logistic regression analysis showed that gender (95% CI 1.607-4.402, P = 0.000), age ≥ 60 years (95% CI 1.380-3.697, P = 0.001), preoperative antiplatelet therapy (95% CI 1.254-3.420, P = 0.004), and extracorporeal circulation time > 120 min (95% CI 1.681-4.652, P = 0.000) were independent risk factors for postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease. The area under the ROC curve was 0.719 (95% CI: 0.663-0.774). The slope of the calibration curve was close to 1, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test was χ2 = 6.422, P = 0.491.
CONCLUSION: Postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease is influenced by gender, age ≥ 60 years, preoperative antiplatelet therapy, and extracorporeal circulation time > 120 min. A nomogram established based on above multiple independent risk factors provides a method for clinical prediction of the risk of postoperative thrombocytopenia in critically ill patients with heart disease.